Currencies/FX Weekly Overview and Trade Opportunities: 15/09/13

Comments
AUD/CAD
The Daily chart shows a fakeout to the upside of an Ascending triangle. The price action has re-entered the range. No further action.
AUD/NZD
The Daily AUD/NZD is sat in the middle of a 3 month symmetrical triangle. Although the weekly does not confirm this view, whilst it’s still trending down. Watch for breakout to the downside (Daily).
AUD/USD
After its long trend down since April, AUD/USD has retraced the move partially although looks to be pointing down once more. Continue to watch.
CHF/JPY

CHFJPY Daily 150913

CHFJPY Weekly 150913

CHF/JPY Weekly is sat perfectly within an ascending triangle and is poised for a breakout, one way or another. The Daily is sat within a 3 month symmetrical triangle and looks set to breakout. Continue to watch.
EUR/AUD
The Euro v Aussie Daily has been ticking down since the beginning of September although there has been some retracement of this move. The weekly confirms the same although no recognisable pattern exists at present. Continue to watch.
EUR/GBP

EURGBP Weekly 240813 EURGBP Daily 150913

EUR/GBP Daily broken down back at the end of August. The Weekly looks set to break down out of a 9 month triangle also. Monitor with a view to initiating Short.
EUR/JPY
The Euro/JPY has completed a fakeout of a symmetrical triangle on the Daily charts. The Weekly is still trading strongly within an Ascending Triangle. Continue to monitor.
EUR/USD

EURUSD Weekly 150913

EUR/USD Daily is still trading sideways. The Weekly is still trading within a Symmetrical triangle for over a year and is still heading for a breakout. Continue to watch.
GBP/JPY
Having broken out on the Daily chart in Mid-August, GBP/JPY continues to trend upwards with the Weekly confirming the same view. Mid-Trend, look for next entry point.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD has been trending strongly since the beginning of September on both the Daily and Weekly charts. Continue to monitor. Look for appropriate entry.
USD/CAD
The USD/CAD daily chart shows choppy trading after “faking out” of a 3 month triangle whilst the Weekly is still trading within a 3 month triangle. Continue to monitor.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF also faked out of a triangle towards the end of August and has since done a round trip. The Weekly continues to trade sideways. No further action.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY looks to be trading sideways also, with the potential for the trade to move to the upside once more. Continue to monitor.
USD/SGD
USD/SGD also “faked out” in August and has since completed a round trip on the Daily chart. The weekly does not provide any clearer guidance on a clear direction at this time. No futher action.

Summary

EUR/GBP – monitor with a view to initiating a Short position.

 

Commodities Weekly Overview and Trade opportunities: 15/09/2013 $cc_f $gf_f $lb_f

Comments
Brent Oil The threat of Middle Eastern conflict has added volatility to the Oil contracts over the past few weeks. Trading direction is still uncertain on a weekly and daily chart basis. No further action.
Cocoa Bulk Bean (London)London Cocoa Daily 150913 Cocoa Bulk Bean/London Cocoa continues to lead higher and, having broken out of a 2 month symmetrical triangle at the beginning of September, is now poised for further movement upwards. The Weekly chart is also pointed upwards although the 1700 level is significant. Long at 1700+
Coffee Arabica (US Coffee) Coffee Arabica/US Coffee continues to be mid-trend with the Weekly showing a strong downtrend since September 2011 and the Daily showing a renewed downtrend since May 2013. The Daily is currently retracing this move and does not yet provide a suitable entry point. No further action.
Coffee Robusta (London Coffee)London Coffee Daily 150913 Coffee Robusta/ London Coffee broke down on 20th August from the 1853 level and is now trading around 1720. This contract looks to be forming a new base.  The Weekly confirms this view having broken out of a 5 month symmetrical triangle. Watch for further breakout of the new base.
Copper Having broken down out of a small triangle in August, Copper continues to trade sideways with volatility at present with some signs of a further move down. No further action.
Corn Corn Daily is trading within a 2 month symmetrical triangle and is poised for further action, possibly to the downside. Continue to watch for further breakdown.
Cotton Cotton has been ticking up since the beginning of September, moving from 81 to 85. I’m unsure if this is a new trend or a significant turning point as it is not accompanied by a significant patter. Continue to watch.
Feeder CattleFeeder Cattle Daily 150913 Feeder Cattle has broken out of a very short term triangle and continues it’s move to the upside. Although the breakout move wasn’t particularly strong, I feel that it’s worth watching this move and entering Long if the trend continues.
Gasoline Gasoline has moved sharply south in recent days and is currently trading around the $2.83 level. No clear pattern has formed yet. Continue to watch.
Gold Gold is down sharply for the week having traded down from $1394 to $1323. It finished up for the day on Friday despite having made a new low for the week. Monitor with a view to downside movement.
Heating Oil Choppy trading continues in Heating Oil with the trend predominantly being up since the beginning of July. Continue to watch.
LumberLumber Daily Gap 150913 Lumber has posted a runaway gap on the Daily with the weekly sitting at the tip of a descending triangle, looking to breakout to the upside. Initiate Long based on Daily gap.
Natural Gas Natural Gas has rebounded back up to pre-breakdown levels of July and looks poised for further upside action. Continue to watch.
Oats Having rebounded to highs of 394 at the end of August, Oats continues to trend down and is currently trading around the 340 level. Volatile trading in recent times. Continue to watch.
Orange Juice The 3 month symmetrical triangle in OJ has failed as Orange Juice continues to trade sideways. No further action.
Rough Rice Rough Rice has done a round trip on the breakout of a 3+ month triangle from June to August. No further action until the trading direction is more clear.
Silver Ironically Silver has also completed a round trip on the upside breakout from a similar triangle to Rough Rice and looks set to head back towards the $18 lows of June. Any further support at $21? Let’s find out…
Soybean Volatile action in Soybean continues with the failure of a descending triangle on the Weekly chart and $1400 level support on the daily. No further action.
Soybean Meal Volatile, sideways trading in Soybean Meal also. No further action.
Soybean Oil Soybean Oil Daily continues to trade within a 2 month triangle whilst the weekly has broken down out of a 10 month triangle and has traded down since June, with brief retracements. Continue to watch.
Sugar Raw Sugar no.11 has completed a fakeout of a 4 month Daily triangle and looks set to re-enter the range with the Weekly having never left the same pattern. No further action.
Sugar White London Sugar is still trading sideways in a similar fashion. Continue to watch.
US CocoaUS Cocoa Daily 150913 2nd September saw a strong breakout in the Daily charts with the Weekly confirming the same view. This mirrors movement in London Cocoa. Initiate Long.
Wheat More choppy trading from wheat without further insight. No further action
WTI Oil Along with Brent Oil, WTI has been somewhat volatile on the threat of Middle Eastern conflict. WTI has recently failed to break out of an 8-10 week ascending triangle. Choppy trading action, no further action.

Summary:

Cocoa Bulk Bean (London) – Long at 1700.

Coffee Robusta (London Coffee) – Watch for breakout of new base.

Feeder Cattle – Watch Long.

Lumber – Long based on Runaway Gap.

US Cocoa – Initiate Long.

Currencies/FX Weekly Overview and Trade Opportunities: 25/08/2013 $AUDCAD $AUDNZD $AUDUSD $CHFJPY $EURAUD $EURGBP $EURJPY $EURUSD $GBPJPY $GBPUSD $USDCAD $USDCHF $USDJPY $USDSGD

Comments
AUD/CADAUDCAD Daily 240813
The Daily chart shows the AUD/CAD in a 4 week ascending triangle although the Weekly does not confirm this view, rather, it confirms a sharp downtrend since April 2013. The Weekly downtrend does look to be forming a new base. Watch for breakout of 4 week ascending triangle, initiate position with tight stop, regular movement.
AUD/NZDAUDNZD Daily 240813
The Daily AUD/NZD also shows signs of strength in the AUD as the AUD/NZD has formed a symmetrical triangle. Again, the weekly does not confirm this view although a new base could be forming. Watch for breakout
AUD/USD
AUD/USD provides less guidance than versus the CAD or NZD. Choppy trading persists in this FX cross. Continue to watch
CHF/JPYCHFJPY Daily 240813 

 

 

CHFJPY Weekly 240813

 

 

 

CHF/JPY Daily is currently within an 8 week Ascending Triangle (albeit more horizontal than preferred). The Weekly strongly confirms this view with a 6 month Ascending Triangle also. Watch for breakout and initiate position.
EUR/AUD
The Euro v Aussie Daily is currently in a 4 week Symmetrical Triangle although the Weekly chart does not confirm the same view. Watch for breakout.
EUR/GBPEURGBP Weekly 240813
EUR/GBP Daily has broken out to the upside of an 11 day triangle (hardly notable) after having broken down out of a previous 2 month triangle. More importantly, the Weekly chart has been in a Symmetrical Triangle for the past 9 months and is poised for further movement. Continue to watch.
EUR/JPY
The Euro/JPY has been trading sideways since April of this year and continues to move within a small channel. The Weekly confirms the sideways movement although a clear direction has not yet emerged. Continue to monitor.
EUR/USDEURUSD Weekly 240813
EUR/USD Daily looks to be trending upwards and has done for the past month. The Weekly shows that EUR/USD has been trading within a Symmetrical triangle for just over a year and could be poised for breakout in the next few weeks.
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY looks to have broken out of a 4 month Daily symmetrical triangle although it appears to be slowing in momentum. The Weekly is still within the said triangle. Continue to watch.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD broke out of a 2 month ascending triangle only to retrace sharply, labelling this move as a fakeout.
USD/CAD
The USD/CAD broke out of a 3 month symmetrical triangle on Thursday 22/08/2013 to the upside, although Friday closed down. The Weekly chart shows resistance to the upside at 1.06. Look for a close above this point for confirmation of the upside breakout.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF looks to be trading down on both the Daily and Weekly charts with the Weekly having broken down out of a 4 month symmetrical triangle. Continue to monitor.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is trading sideways on the Daily chart although the Weekly confirms a downtrend has been in place since 19/05/13, albeit a choppy one.
USD/SGD
USD/SGD Daily has completed a fakeout out of a 2 month symmetrical triangle and has now moved back into the same pattern. Unclear trading direction here.

 

Trade Update: Corn, Natural Gas and Soybean Oil. $ZC_F $NG_F $ZL_F

It’s been a while since I’ve been able to post here as I’ve not had any internet access since moving. However, I’ve found my way back and wanted to provide an update on the positions that I first called here on the 21/07/13:

Short Corn – 21/07/13

Corn Weekly 210713I called short Corn here at 591, had my short order filled at 583 and covered the short at 497 meaning a total gain of 14.72% in just over 4 weeks of holding the position, adjusting the stop throughout.  See the charts on the left for the starting and finishing positions.

 

Corn Result

 

 

 

 

 

Short Soybean Oil – 21/07/13

Soybean Oil Daily 210713 I called short Soybean Oil here on 21/07/13 at 45.57, was filled at 45.38 and covered my short at 42.99 which meant a total gain of around 5.3% in around 4 weeks whilst modifying the stops throughout. See the charts to the left for further details.

 

soybean oil result

 

Short Natural Gas – 21/07/13

Natural Gas Daily 210713 I added Natural Gas to the short watchlist on 21/07/13 before initiating a short on 22/07/13 at 3.73. The current price of Natural Gas is 3.43, a decline of just under 8% in a little over 4 weeks. This position is still live and I expect another day or two or retracement before the next downleg on which I will add to the short once more providing the short continues to conform to the channel.

Natural Gas ongoing position

Commodities Weekly overview and Trade opportunities: 27/07/2013 $zc_f $ng_f $zl_f

Comments
Brent Oil Brent Crude is still mid-trend although looks to have posted a relative high on Fri 19/7/13 of 109.900 approx. The trend has since turned although not enough for me to take a position in either direction. No further action.
Cocoa Bulk Bean Cocoa Bulk Bean/London Cocoa has formed a relative high at 1603 on Fri 19/7/13 and looks to be forming a short term based around the 1550 level. Continues to be mid-trend. No further action.
Coffee Arabica Coffee Arabica/US Coffee continues to be mid-trend although one could contend that, aside from a ‘fakeout’, US Coffee has been in a channel since the end of April/beginning of May. Unclear trading direction. No further action.
Coffee Robusta Coffee Robusta/ London Coffee continues to be Mid-trend and forming a new range, a new downtrending channel or a number of oter patterns. No further action as the trading direction is far from clear.
Copper Copper now looks to be forming an ascending wedge although I will continue to wait for a breakout to either side remembering that previous attempts to rally in May, 2013 also failed and lead to further downside. The path of least resistance has been short for the past twelve months. No further action.
Corn$zc_fCorn Weekly 210713 A great example of a commodity breaking down out of a symmetrical triangle. Corn is down 9.89% for the week since I posted my short position call on 21/07/2013. Continue to run the position and monitor stops. Look to build into position at appropriate junctures. The trend is your friend…
Cotton Cotton continues to trade in the aforementioned triangle. No breakout and over the long-term, Cotton has generally traded over a tight trading range. No further action.
Feeder Cattle Feeder Cattle continues its large breakout to the upside, still mid-trend. No further action
Gasoline Having ticked down over the past week, Gasoline has potentially posted a relative low of $2.98 on Thursday 25/07/13. Unclear trading direction, continue to monitor. No further action.
Gold Gold looks to be forming a new base after breaking out of a short-term ascending triangle. No further action until the next trading point presents itself.
Heating Oil$HO_F Relative highs and lows seem to be the theme of the week with Heating Oil posting a relative high on Friday 19th July, 2013 of 3.12. Watch here for breakdown of the two month Ascending wedge here ready to initiate short.
Lumber Lumber continues to be Mid-trend with some choppy action recently. As they say “Nothing doing here for you Larry Livingston.” Continue to monitor.
Natural Gas$NG_FNatural Gas Daily 210713 Natural Gas continues to channel down and has done since early May, 13 according to the Daily chart. I entered here on Monday 22/07/13 and continue to be short.
Oats$ZO_F Oats broke out (to the downside) of the 3 week symmetrical triangle I referred to on 21/07/2013. I won’t pretend to have been short already because I wasn’t; the hindsight of daily monitoring and the lack thereof for this position. Having broken out only in the last 3 days, if the move is as targeted, a position can still be taken here. Initiate Short.
Orange Juice The momentum in Orange Juice seems to have slowed somewhat as OJ looks to be forming a symmetrical triangle here, pausing for breath as some take pofits. Continue to monitor the formation of this pattern and watch for a strong breakout to either side.
Rough Rice My view on Rough Rice is the same: the weekly chart continues to trade sideways with the Daily offering little indication of movement apart from a recent upturn in momentum. No further action required.
Silver Attempted breakout of the 4 week Ascending triangle in Silver  Daily has failed with a fakeout to the upside before moving back into the trading range of the triangle. Continue to monitor.
Soybean$ZS_F Ironically the two Soybean contracts that I focused less on last week were Soybean and Soybean Meal. What happened? Both Soybean and Soybean Meal were down 9.30% and 9.56% respectively whilst Soybean Oil was down only  4.30% for the week. The bulls appear to be fighting back in Soybean Meal though.

Adhering to the Descending Wedge here would have paid dividends, as would have Daily monitoring of this position. There may be further to go with this position although the current price level is approaching a 52 week low.

Soybean Meal
$ZM_F
See above.
Soybean OilSoybean Oil Daily 210713$ZL_F Short position entered and held here (see my post on 21/07/2013 for more information). Comparable charts exist to the left <<
Sugar Raw Sugar no.11 has ticked up 1.13% for the week and is building a Short entry point if the downtrend is to continue. Continue to monitor and sell the strength here.
Sugar White London Sugar is still trading sideways although reaching the end of a 2 month symmetrical triangle.  Monitor and look for strong breakout to either side.
US Cocoa The Daily chart is still trading sideways and meeting some resistance. The Weekly chart is still sat neatly in a symmetrical triangle, poised for breakout although I expect this to trade for longer. Continue to monitor.
Wheat More choppy trading from wheat without further insight. No further action
WTI Oil A relative high was formed on Friday 19th July and both Brent and WTI have ticked down since. Trend reversal or consolidation? Continue to monitor.

 

Commodities Weekly Overview and Trade Opportunities: 21/07/2013

Comments
Brent Oil Brent Crude has significantly broken out of a 12+ week triangle and more recently out of an ascending wedge. The weekly chart continues to trade within the wedge and is mid-trend, mirroring WTI. No further action
Cocoa Bulk Bean Cocoa Bulk Bean/London Cocoa has ticked up sharply since forming a relative low on 24/6/13. Continues to be mid-trend. No further action
Coffee Arabica Coffee Arabica/US Coffee has sharply broken out of a 4 week ascending triangle and has since re-entered the trading range. Unclear trading direction. No further action.
Coffee Robusta Coffee Robusta/ London Coffee has broken out sharply to the upside, mirroring the movement of US coffee, except the trend continues to be strong. Mid-trend, no further action.
Copper Copper has declined sharply since the beginning of June, potentially on Chinese growth concerns, although has re-traced it’s move somewhat in July. It continues to be mid-trend; no further action.
CornCorn Weekly 210713 Corn continues to break down having seen a 4% one day decline at the end of June. The Weekly chart shows that Corn has broken down from a 12 month triangle and continues to trend down overall. Initiate Short position trading the Weekly chart.
CottonCotton Daily 210713 Daily chart is in the middle of an 8 week symmetrical triangle and close to breakout. Weekly has been in a trading range of $70-$90 since May 2012. Watch for breakout of Daily. Aggressive stop movement as short-term pattern
Feeder Cattle Feeder Cattle continues its large breakout to the upside having gapped up in the last week of June. Continues to be mid-trend. No further action
Gasoline Gasoline continues it’s up-trend having broken out at the end of June, mirroring movements in Oil. No further action.
Gold Daily chart has just broken out to the upside of an ascending triangle. Pivot point/relative low formed on weekly chart. No further action.
Heating Oil Heating Oil has mirrored the movements of WTI, Brent crude and Gasoline (not unexpectedly) and continues to be mid-trend. No further action.
Lumber Having peaked at out $400 in March of this year, Lumber embarked on a massive downtrend, entering the $270′s and has since found support in this region. The last week in June has seen a return of large scale demand having rebounded to the $320′s. Mid-trend, continue to monitor.
Natural GasNatural Gas Daily 210713 Natural Gas continues to channel down and has done since early May, 13 according to the Daily chart. The Weekly is beginning to confirm this view although further confirmation is needed. Watch Short.
Oats Trading in Oats has been very choppy over the past 12 months and continues to do so having found itself trading in a very short term, 3 week symmetrical triangle. Continue to monitor and look for a large breakout to either side, with tight stops and aggressive stop movement.
Orange Juice Having formed a relative low of $124 at the end of June, Orange Juice has rebounded sharply, presently trading around $146. The Weekly chart has completed a 12-15 month triangle (15 if you count the fakeout) and has now started to gain traction to the upside with a potential target circa $200. It will take another positive week of strong trading for this momentum to be confirmed. Continue to monitor.
Rough Rice The Rough Rice weekly chart continues to trade sideways with the Daily offering little indication of movement apart from a recent upturn in momentum. No further action required.
SilverSilver Daily 210713 Down approximately 28% for the year, the Silver daily now finds itself trading in a 4 week Ascending triangle. The Weekly chart doesn’t confirm the same pattern although a relative low may have been posted at approximately $18.20 for the week ending 21st June. Continue to monitor Daily chart for a breakout of the triangle with tight stops and aggressive stop movement if a position is taken here.
Soybean The May breakout of a Symmetrical triangle reached it’s target although the move has since re-traced and Soybean continues to trade sideways. The Weekly confirms the same. No further action.
Soybean Meal Soybean Meal looks to have reached it’s target for the early July breakout of its Symmetrical triangle. Mid-trend, no further action
Soybean OilSoybean Oil Daily 210713Soybean Oil Weekly 210713 Daily has just broken down out of a 4 week descending triangle and the Weekly confirms this movement having broken down from a 9 month symmetrical triangle. Soybean oil is now trading at a 12 month low. Initiate short position based on the Daily chart, with aggressive stop movement based on the 4 week duration of the Daily triangle.
Sugar Raw Sugar no.11 continues to trade down although it has not yet provided a sufficient entry point. Continue to monitor, sell the strength here.
Sugar White London Sugar continues to trade sideways without definitive direction. No further action.
US Cocoa The Daily chart is re-testing the edge of a 12-15 week symmetrical triangle without providing clear direction. The Weekly chart is sat neatly in a symmetrical triangle, poised for breakout. Continue to monitor.
Wheat After breaking down out of an 8 week triangle, Wheat, having met it’s target, continues to trade sideways. Mid-trend, no further action
WTI Oil Daily and weekly charts have broken out to the upside of Symmetrical triangles. No further action until consolidation point formed.

My trading methods: How, When and Why

I am absolutely encapsulated by trading; I love it. How can you not love a challenge whereby if you “solve the puzzle” then financial freedom is the prize?

I don’t trade for excitement or entertainment. Trading provides me with an opportunity to continuously learn, develop and grow.

Which market is the best to trade? Any market that provides me with the right opportunity. What is the right opportunity? One that I know how to successfully trade.

I’m always bemused when I see that a trader “specialises in GBP/USD” or just trades “large cap stocks”. I truly believe that although a skilled trader will have their preferences, any market is tradable. The reasons for entering a position matter much more, as does in-trade management. I once saw a post asking a trader why they were “so obsessed with Gold” when there are over 30,000 instruments to trade?

I trade two main strategies:

  • Commodities, Currencies, Indices and Treasuries using classical chart pattern techniques taught by Robert D. Edwards and John Magee.
  • Long/Short Global Equity based upon Macroeconomics, Bottom Up and Technical analysis.

Chart timeframe: Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

% of capital at risk: 1% per trade (or as close to as possible)

Positions can last from a few days, to a few weeks or months. The longer, the better as I always ‘Run the winners’ and ‘Cut the losers’.

I never trade intraday. As a wise man once said “Day trading is like picking up pennies in front of a steam roller”